Análise das relações de causa e efeito entre a perda da área florestada, subprodutos florestais e variáveis econômicas brasileiras e globais

Abstract

The forest is a fundamental natural resource for sustaining economic development and human life. As the need for raw materials increases, interference with the forest becomes more rigorous to meet consumer needs and also to sustain economic development. However, economic development can have an impact on environmental quality. Similarly, environmental quality can also impact economic development. Based on this idea, this paper was built with three articles. The first article sought to identify the cause and effect relationships between demand, supply, and price of roundwood on pulp and paper production in Brazil from 2004 to 2018. The second article sought to analyze the relationship between loss of forest cover and GDP per capita, globally, in the period from 2002 to 2015. Finally, the third article sought to analyze the causal relationships between economic development and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon forest. The variables used in the first article are: supply, demand and price of wood produced in Brazil (roundwood for pulp and paper production). In the second article, 174 countries were investigated in which the variables used were: loss of forest cover and GDP per capita. In this second article, the period from 2002 to 2015 was evaluated, due to the availability of data obtained with the loss of forest cover. Finally, in the third article, the variables GDP per capita, Income per Capita and deforestation of forests in the Brazilian Amazon were used, involving 9 States in the period from 2002 to 2019. As a result, a close relationship was observed, both in the short and long term, between the economic variables and loss of forest cover, pointing to the existence of causal flows between them. Such causal flows can be used to establish public policies for forest management and reforestation. These reforestation policies could reduce the pressure on native forests. In addition, they could stimulate the economy, income generation, and wood trade.