Influência das mudanças climáticas nos padrões atuais e futuros de distriuição e eclodibilidade de ovos de Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) no mundo

Abstract

Climatic change may have an influence on the distribution and life cycle of arthropods, which are vectors of pathogens, acting on t he incidence of parasitic diseases. The R. (B.) microplus tick is associated with economic losses of livestock animals, due to the expoliation and transmission of Babesia bovis, B. bigemina protozoans, and the bacteria Anaplasma marginale, which affect cattle causing the weight of infected animals and consequently, economic losses, which can lead to death. This tick occupies geographical spaces in the Americas, Africa and Asia and, due to its vectorial importance, it is necessary to indicate the climatic variables that modulate the distribution of this species, as well as to understand the impact of climate change on its free life stage (in the environment). In this study we model the influence of climate change on the distribution and hatching eggs of R. (B.) microplus, considering two scenarios of greenhouse emissions (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) for two future periods (2050 and 2070). Through species occurrence data, physiological limits and statistical models, the environmental variables responsible for the distribution of the tick were identified, in addition to indicating geographic areas suitable for their distribution in the face of climate change. We also indicate the areas with the appropriate environmental conditions for the hatchability eggs percentages of R. (B.) microplus and how the future environmental conditions will impact on these percentages. Our results anticipated increases in areas of environmental suitability for ticks around the world, especially in areas of higher livestock production. The Indo-Malaysian region proved to be the most vulnerable in the two climate change projections for 2050, with adequacy increases> 30%. This study also indicated the addition of areas suitable for hatching of eggs in all future scenarios, mainly for RCP 8.5 (2070), for hatching percentages greater than 50% in which additions (~ 15%) were indicated for the Central America, southern Brazil, central and western Africa, Indonesia and Malaysia. Through this study we show how the climate influences the distribution and the hatchability modulation of R. (B.) microplus eggs, in addition, we indicate how future climate changes will affect this species and which are the main geographic areas suitable for tick and, consequently, greater chances of transmission of pathogens associated with wild animals and livestock.