Os efeitos dos surtos de COVID-19 sobre o crime no estado do Rio Grande do Sul (Brasil): uma abordagem de Vetor Autorregressivo em Painel

Abstract

The new coronavirus pandemic brought changes to people's routines, which is unique, as it affected every corner of the planet. In the context of the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Brazil, concerns about the spread of the virus and the containment measures adopted by the government had notable effects on people's lives, also modifying the social environment of criminal activity. The objective of this dissertation is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on crimes in the state of RS, Brazil, represented by outbreaks of cases of the disease, so the main contribution of the research will be to explore how the pandemic affected crime in a country where crime is high, adding to other international evidence. The methodological approach used was panel autoregressive vector (PVAR), for 497 municipalities in 34 months, analyzing changes in the aggregate of all crimes and for crimes of violence against women, embezzlement, theft and robbery. The main results come from the impulse response functions, indicating a heterogeneous effect over 10 months, which was different only for crimes of violence against women, in which the response was positive over the same time horizon. Furthermore, the effect on robberies was not significant. By way of conclusion, it is believed that, as the effects of the pandemic may be volatile over time, due to public policies and the virus's own mutation trajectory, it is likely that the relationship between the variables that refer to crimes and COVID-19 tends to become null and void as time progresses. These conclusions provide relevant support for decision-making within the scope of public security in Rio Grande do Sul.