Análise de impacto e desenvolvimento econômico: aplicações de controle sintético

Abstract

This dissertation consists of two letter-format articles aimed at applying empirical exercises of causal effects. Contemporary economic analysis often seeks to unravel cause-and-effect relationships between events and their impacts on variables of interest. Two innovative economic methods have stood out in investigating such effects: the synthetic difference-in-differences method and synthetic control. The synthetic difference-in-differences method allows the exploration of complex and multidimensional causalities, uncovering the effects of historical, political, and institutional events. In contrast, the synthetic control method is a crucial tool for assessing policy impacts or interventions in situations where a direct control group is absent. The articles apply these methods to different approaches. The first article examines the constitutional changes in Argentina in 1949, known as social constitutionalism, which strengthened the executive power, centralized control, and promoted an interventionist approach to the economy. The second article analyzes the Kuwaiti reconstruction plan after the 1990 Gulf War, including economic revitalization, infrastructure recovery, and economic diversification. The dissertation contributes to economic and scientific literature by applying these methods to unprecedented topics, showcasing the versatility of the methods in different contexts. These studies explore the profound impact of constitutional changes and post-conflict plans in their respective nations, enriching the understanding of power dynamics, public policies, and economic development.