Impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a distribuição geográfica de Itapotihyla langsdorffii (ANURA: HYLIDAE)

Abstract

Studies in the field aimed to estimate the distribution of the species are needed, but often limited, costly and laborious. One tool that can be used to minimize these problems is species distribution modelling (SDM), which allows estimating current and future areas of occurrence and that has been highlighted in several areas of knowledge. In the present research, the SDM was used to know the distribution and predict the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of the Itapotihyla langsdorffii, it has a wide distribution with populations that occur along the Atlantic Forest, and peripheral areas of the Cerrado biome. In Brazil, it occurs between the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Sergipe, there are isolated populations described in northeastern Argentina and southeast Paraguay. The methodology used in this study was the species distribution modeling, analyzed through a current scenario (1970- 2000) and three distinct scenarios (RCP's 4.5.6.0 and 8.5), designed by three MCG's (CCSM4, HADGEM2-ES and MRICGCM3). for the future period (average between 2061-2080), using as basis the occurrence data of the species (129 records) and the selected environmental variables after correlation test (bio1, bio2, bio4, bio12 and bio18). The models were developed using the maximum entropy method with the aid of MaxEnt version 3.4.1 software, using current and future bioclimatic projections at their interface. The prediction models of current distribution and future scenarios obtained excellent values of the area under the curve (AUC) and the validation pointed to high precision in model quality. Through the Jacknife results, it was verified the bioclimatic variables that most contributed to the spatial distribution of the species, such as the warmest quarter precipitation (bio18) and the seasonal temperature (bio4). It was concluded that it was possible to evaluate and verify that climate change has a positive impact on the geographic distribution of Itapotihyla langsdorffii. This was verified through future projections (scenario 6.0 of CCSM4 and HADGEM2-ES and scenario 8.5 of MRICGCM3) where the increase of the areas most likely to occur were observed in future projections (2061-2080). Future models pointed out that the climatically suitable regions for the occurrence of I. langsdorffii are located in the coastal zone of the Brazilian coast, mainly in the range between the states of Rio de Janeiro and Santa Catarina; as well as along the Southeast region of Brazil (SP, MG, ES and RJ), coast-continent direction. Finally, the present dissertation, besides its objectives, can contribute to base institutional decisions in the processes of creation of new conservation units, elaboration of Action Plans for the conservation of threatened species, among other possible actions.