Expansão da esporotricose zoonótica: análise epidemiológica da esporotricose canina e felina na região Sul do Rio Grande do Sul, 2007 – 2018

Abstract

This dissertation aims to analyze clinical and epidemiological characteristics of canine and feline sporotrichosis in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul, during the period from 2007 to 2018, as well as to analyze the incidence rate of feline sporotrichosis in this region during the period from 2013 to 2018 and to build time series models capable of representing and predicting the incidence of the disease in subsequent years in the region. For this purpose, 288 cases of feline sporotrichosis and 69 cases of canine sporotrichosis were diagnosed at the Center for Diagnosis and Research in Veterinary Mycology of the Federal University of Pelotas during the period 2007 to 2018. It was observed that the disease predominantly affected male animals (75.2% and 56.5% in felines and canines, respectively), without defined race (SRD) (94.2% and 53.6% in felines and canines, respectively), adults (60.5% and 69.6% in felines and canines, respectively), who presented time of evolution of the disease up to three months with ulcerated lesions being the predominant clinical sign. It was also observed that the canine cases of the disease presented, in its totality, the fungal species Sporothrix brasiliensis as etiological agent and that, in both animal species, the accomplishment of treatment previous to the diagnosis presented significant association (p < 0.05) with the time of longer evolution of the disease. Regarding the time series models, it was observed that the ARMA (6.6) model incomplete in AR (2, 4, 6) and MA (2, 4), was considered the most appropriate, predicting a high number of cases for 2019 in Pelotas County, while the mathematical model susceptible-infectible-suscptible (SIS) demonstred the epidemic character of the disease in the region, with a tendency to exponential growth and prediction of more than 10,000 infected cats in the next 25 years (2021 - 2044). This dissertation is composed of three scientific papers on the clinical-epidemiological analysis of canine sporotrichosis in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul; clinical-epidemiological and risk factors evaluation, and time series analysis for feline sporotrichosis in the city of Pelotas / RS; and simulation of the transmission dynamics of feline sporotrichosis in the urban environment through the SIS model.