Um novo jogo?: eleições suplementares municipais e seus efeitos na competição política (2012-2020)

Abstract

The thesis has as its theme the supplementary elections for mayor, with the main goal is to analyze the impact that those that took place between 2013 and 2020 had on political competition in the municipalities, based on the comparison with the respective ordinary elections of 2012 and 2016. The object include the 282 carried out in the time lapse, of which 278 had the result fully concluded. The hypothesis that bases the work indicates that, in the supplementary election, the political competition is not simply repeated during the four-year term, but that it undergoes significant changes in relation to the ordinary election. For the development of the research, the judicial decisions that annulled the claims were analyzed, the list of candidates and electoral results, information collected in different data repositories of the Electoral Justice, futher to observing the few cases arising from double vacancy. The analysis shows, with regard to judicial decisions of the Electoral Justice, that the challenges had two or more proponents; the predominant types of actions were the Electoral Judicial Investigation Action (AIJE) and the Action for Impugnment of Candidacy Registration (AIRC); the most recurrent reasons for contestation are: (1) illicit capture of suffrage; (2) abuse of economic, political and/or authority power and (3) inadequacy to the Ineligibility Law. Also, it was found that the arguments used are based on infra-constitutional legislation and that the absolute majority of the decisions of the 1st instance tend to produce sentences favorable to the annulment of the ordinary election. By observing the 2nd instance, the TREs are responsible for calling the supplementary elections. With regard to the behavior of voters, a pattern was found in new elections compared to annulled ones: the number of eligible voters decreases; abstention grows; there is a reduction in invalid votes, evidenced in both blank and null votes. Regarding, the political competition, in the focus given to individual competitors, it was noted that the majority ran again for the same positions and that there is a high number of candidacies from councilors, especially those who temporarily assumed the leadership of the municipalities. When evaluating competition in the focus of parties, coalitions and political groups, it was found that coalitions are more successful than the candidacy of only one party; that they are more favorable to the candidate who was defeated in the annulled election. And, finally, that a party of the incumbent of the candidacy is repeated both to the winner of the election and to the losers.