Efeitos de dissuasão do mercado de trabalho do crime na região metropolitana de Porto Alegre

Abstract

In the last decade there was a significant reduction in total thefts and robberies in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre. This paper investigates the relationship between this reduction and possible deterrence effects of the labor market (unemployment and real income) in the region during this period. For this purpose this paper uses a dynamic time series model, one Vector Error Correction (VEC) with monthly data for a period of eleven years starting at and January 2003. The results indicate that there is a common long-term stochastic trend among the variables and that the variations in income impact theft and that the variations in the unemployment rate affect thefts. The reduction of one standard deviation in the unemployment rate can reduce 82 monthly thefts while the increase of one standard deviation in income increases by 66 monthly robberies in the area.