Políticas de crescimento econômico: avaliação através do método de controle sintético

Abstract

The objective of this work is to test whether the political and institutional changes that took place in Singapore since 1991 had an impact on the country's income level in the long run. We used panel data from the World Bank Open Data from 1970 to 2018. To research this case study we propose the synthetic control method. As a robustness strategy we propose the placebo tests, tests for subsamples and the synthetic differences-in differences methods. The results show that the institutional change that took place in Singapore positively and significantly affected the country's long-term per capita income level by approximately US$8,237.74 per capita. All robustness tests support the hypothesis that institutional changes have affected Singapore's long-term gross domestic product per capita.