Potencial de Distribuição de Bactrocera oleae (Diptera: Tephritidae) e dos parasitoides Fopius arisanus e Psyttalia concolor (Hymenoptera: Braconidae)

Abstract

Bactrocera oleae (Rossi, 1790), is a monophagous species and one of the main pest of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) (Lamiales: Oleaceae), causing economic losses worldwide. To date, it has not been detected in South America, and in Brazil it is considered quarantine pest A1. The present work was divided into two articles and had as aims: (a) to map the regions at a global level, with an emphasis on South America, according to the potential distribution of B. oleae, and two parasitoids, Fopius arisanus (Sonan, 1932) and Psyttalia concolor (Szépligeti, 1910); (b) to verify the potential distribution of B. oleae in global climate change scenarios and to identify regions with potential for emerging threats and future invasions. The Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was carried out using the algorithm Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt). Data were obtained on the occurrence points of B. oleae, F. arisanus and P. concolor in free online access museums and scientific articles. The bioclimatic layers were selected by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The thresholds Minimum Training Presence (MTP) and Maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity (maxSSS) were applied for the definition of areas of potential presence of the species. In the first article, maps of the areas of environmental suitability of B. oleae to those of the parasitoids were compared. In the second article maps of overlapping climate change scenarios with historical data were generated. As results, it was observed that B. oleae has potential distribution for all continents. The greatest potential range of F. arisanus occurs in Asia, Central America and South America. P. concolor had greater relation to the areas of olive groves. In the projections for future climate scenarios, the potential for establishment of B. oleae in regions of Oceania and South America, where the species is currently absent, and there would be permanence of B. oleae distribution in the traditionally olive tree in Africa, North America and Europe, in which B. oleae would move to regions to the north, in latitudes with currently colder climatic zones. In this way, it was possible to conclude that: a) B. oleae has a potential of establishment in South America and Oceania, places where the species is absent. F. arisanus and P. concolor have the potential to biological control globally; b) in future climate scenarios B. oleae would remain in the producing regions of Africa, Europe, and North America and, with a risk of invasion in South America and Oceania.