Adaptação Climática e Sustentabilidade: um olhar sobre as interconexões entre Governança, Inovação e Desenvolvimento Global

Abstract

This dissertation explores the interconnections between climate vulnerability, social inequality, technological innovation, economic development, and public governance, using econometric methodologies to analyze data from a global sample of countries. The first article examines the relationship between social inequality, measured by the Gini index, and climate vulnerability, represented by the ND-GAIN index and its subcomponents. The results indicate that while the aggregate relationship between inequality and vulnerability is not significant, specific aspects such as water and food security play decisive roles in reducing inequality in the medium term, while infrastructure and health have significant impacts in the long term. This underscores the need for public policies focused on critical sectors to improve the adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable populations. The second article focuses on the dynamics between technological innovation, GDP per capita, and climate vulnerability. Using nonlinear models, the findings reveal an "N-shaped" relationship between economic development and the capacity for climate change adaptation, and an "inverted N" relationship between innovation and climate vulnerability. These findings highlight the importance of investments in research and development (R&D), especially in emerging economies, to mitigate climate impacts. The third article proposes an explanatory structural model based on the sustainability tripod — economic, social, and environmental — integrating public governance and economic development with countries’ adaptive capacity to climate change and environmental performance. The analysis revealed that the interaction between efficient governance, economic growth, and social development is essential for strengthening climate resilience and environmental performance. Governance proved fundamental in amplifying the positive effects of economic growth and minimizing inequalities that exacerbate climate vulnerability. Taken together, the results of the three articles demonstrate that the interconnections between climate vulnerability, social inequality, innovation, public governance, and economic development are complex. The research emphasizes that effective adaptive strategies must consider the specificities of each country and integrate technological innovation with inclusive and sustainable policies, providing practical insights for formulating public policies aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).