Política econômica, desenvolvimento financeiro e financiamento do crescimento no Brasil: 1960-2010

Abstract

This paper analyzes, cliometrically, the role of the three main sources of financing (private, public and foreign savings) and of financial deepening in the Brazilian growth process from 1960 to 2010. The cliometric approach is developed through two research techniques: (i) time-series analysis, based on the use of a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model); and (ii) historical research by the means of a bibliographical and a data analysis in the mentioned period., to strengthen the conclusions about the results obtained in the econometric evaluation. Therefore, the main objective is to contribute to the Brazilian economic history seeking to provide answers to the following questions: (i) how was the financing process of economic growth in the Brazilian economy over a period of fifty years ?; (ii) domestic savings was more important than the foreign, in this process, or was otherwise ?; and (iii) what were the effects of financial deepening on savings levels and growth rates? Looking at the results, one can conclude that the growth of the Brazilian economy was mostly financed by foreign savings. However, there was also the importance of financial deepening through a restructuring of financial system (financial enlargement) at beginning of period (decade 60). In this sense, we consider that cliometric analysis allows a better assessment about the financing of growth process in that period, than a purely econometric analysis.