Simulação de cenários produtivos e econômicos em sistemas de recria-engorda de bovinos de corte

Abstract

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of stocker-finishing beef cattle systems with different arrangements between animal category, management module, buying and selling prices and entering and leaving weights of animals. The scenarios were constructed from real data, literature review and discussions among those involved. The simulation was performed with the help of Microsoft Excel® Conversational Worksheets, which constitute a model of Decision Support System (DSS). The indicators used were: farm time (FT), weight gain (WG), average daily gain (ADG), margin per head and margin per head/month. Only the actual operating costs (AOC) were considered. Thus, 81 scenarios were originated in a 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 arrangement, consisting of three animal categories (calf, over year calf and cow), three management modules (native field - NF, NF + winter pasture - WP and NF + WP + summer pasture - SP), three combinations of buying and selling prices (high/low, medium/medium and low/high) and three combinations of input and output weights (high/low, medium/médium and low/high). The results show that the margin per head, alone, is not a good indicator of the financial performance of the production systems. The WG, ADG, cost and revenue per head indicators were not individually significant for obtaining the best financial response scenarios. However, they demonstrated a significant impact on worst performing scenarios. The cow was the best category (R$ 160,03/head/month) and worse (- R$ 95,40/head/month) financial performance, being the only one to present negative results. Over year calfs presented a better average financial response among the categories, while the calf was the category that presented the lowest variability of the results. The management modules of the best response scenarios include some level of intensification with cultivated pasture. The best financial results are tied to the best buy and sell prices. However, when inserting the variable weight, the behavior of the margins changes. In general, the financial results of the cow category are the most risky. Over year calfs have the best margin per head/month. The calf category is the safest, with less variability of financial results. The intensification with pasture implantation improves the response of the systems, obtaining the best mean with the management module NF + WP. The market (buying and selling prices) was the isolated factor with greater effect on the financial response of the systems. The greatest impact of animal weight arrangements on the financial performance of the systems is associated with the unfavorable pricing arrangement (high/low).