Lowering phenology and dormancy dynamics of apple tree in contrasting climatic conditions: a case study of phenology modeling in the climate warming context

Abstract

Weather patterns have changed globally in recent decades causing serious consequences on the development of several plant species. The intensification of phenological advances in the northern hemisphere has raised interest in the understanding of dormancy physiology in temperate species when subjected to warming regimes. The purpose of this study was to compare regional patterns of temperature on the flowering of apple tree cultivars grown under contrasting climates, using an extensive database of temperature and phenology records. Thus, it was possible to understand how temperature controls the flowering process and identify the areas most vulnerable to warming. Historical temperature series collected for Western Europe (cold winter), Morocco and Southern Brazil (warm winter) were used. Historical dates of two flowering stages and the time between them were analyzed. All areas in Western Europe experienced warming in the spring, whereas a slight warming of winter was found in the mild areas. The observed advancement of blooming dates and the short blooming time were linked to spring temperature increase in Western Europe, with the southern region being more vulnerable to future warming. In Morocco and Southern Brazil minimal warming was found in recent decades but winter was most affected. Weak phenological changes and long flowering periods were associated with winter temperatures. Phenology patterns and intermediate temperatures were observed in Morocco. Moreover, an additional study was conducted in Brazil and France to understand the mechanism of dormancy in apple trees, the intrinsic factors that controls it, and to analyze the regional and varietal variability. The kinetics of dormancy in vegetative buds was determined by a "One-bud cutting test" and in floral buds by "Tabuenca's test." Vegetative buds showed fluctuating dormancy during autumn-winter-spring in France, which was deeper in winter. In Brazil, the vegetative buds showed weak variations and shallow depth in the equivalent period. The significant increase in fresh and dry weight of flower primordia characterized the transitional phase between endo- and ecodormancy. However, ecodormancy establishment was related to the significant increase in dry weight of floral primordia and their ability to rehydrate. The transition between these phases was fast in Brazil and slower in France. Sequential models, able to estimate annual blooming dates in both hemispheres were selected from historical temperature and phenology data. Two models were validated to estimate the stages BBCH 61 (NHGoldenF1) and BBCH 65 (NHGoldenF2) of Golden Delicious in Western Europe. These models showed high accuracy and greater efficiency in relation to thermal models. Considering a CPR scenario of intense increase in temperature by the end of this century, there was estimated a trend to extend the period of chill accumulation, especially in Nîmes, and advance dates for flowering in Angers, by the end of this century, according the two NH models. Under both scenarios and locations, there was a significant reduction in the ecodormancy phase, with the lowest values recorded at Nîmes. The projected changes in temperature in the mediterranean region of Europe can extend the flowering period, resulting in physiologic disturbances as today in mild climate. Other concepts of models and/or the inclusion of multiple factors in the model should be considered in the near future, considering that warming in Europe may compromise the applicability of the sequential models, as observed currently in southern Brazil.