Aplicação de um modelo matemático SEIR com quarentena e vacinação para o estudo da mpox no Brasil

Abstract

The smallpox epidemic was one of the most terrifying diseases ever documented, causing countless deaths all over the world. The control of this disease only was possible thanks to actions taken by health authorities, being considered eradicated. In July 2022, the WHO declared a global public health emergency due to the return of the disease and the high rate outbreaks throughout the world, these outbreaks are not restricted to endemic regions as in the past. According to health authorities, this is due to a decrease in vaccination and the difficulty in tracking infected people. In this work it is made a study of an epidemiological model of the SEIR type to analyze the mpox data in the Brazil. The model used is solved by the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method and four stages, in order to estimate the curves of infected individuals over the course of of time. The model is validated with data from an epidemic outbreak that happened in 1972 in Kosovo. Data from the current mpox virus outbreak in Brazil were collected directly on the Ministry of Health page and it was found that in different scenarios, the model simulation had the same behavior as the outbreak occurred in Kosovo. The model was also used to verify the effect vaccination and quarantine.