Modelagem de distribuição da mosca-das-cucurbitáceas sul-americana Anastrepha grandis (Diptera: Tephritidae): projeções para novos territórios e cenários futuros

Abstract

Pumpkin fly, Anastrepha grandis (Macquart, 1846) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is the most important cucurbit-infested fly in South America. Understanding the potential distribution areas of that specie may help in monitoring and control strategies in regions where the fly would find conditions of environmental suitability for its establishment. Species distribution modeling makes it possible to predict where and under what conditions a species might occur. Understanding how the geographic distribution of the species may occur in different scenarios allows for greater predictability in control strategies in different regions and in different climate scenarios, as can occur if climate change predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is confirmed. The aim of this work was to model the potential distributions of the fly in two types of approaches, one in relation to areas where the fly does not yet occur outside South America, and the other focusing on predictive distribution in climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the fly may settle in various areas of high and medium suitability on all continents, especially in regions such as central Africa, Southeast Asia and Australia. But it also currently finds adequate conditions in areas in the southern United States and the Iberian Peninsula in the northern hemisphere. If areas of low suitability are considered, the number of locations that could be invaded would increase. In climate change scenarios, the fly has its distribution generally favored by changes in all scenarios and although it may lose some of today's potential territory ranges, it will still maintain stable distribution current areas with greater gain in the new areas available mainly in the already favorable regions of the world and regions towards the poles. In this sense, it is concluded that A. grandis is able to disperse and colonize new environments outside its native range, including in regions where it is considered quarantine, and like other tephritids will benefit from climate change that will increase the area suitable for its establishment.