O comportamento das ações de empresas do agronegócio na B3

Abstract

The aim of the study was to analyze the behavior of agribusiness companies' shares on the B3, to better contribute to potential investors. To this end, an exploratory study was carried out with a quantitative approach involving the collection and analysis of numerical data with the application of linear regression as well as the use of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The sample consisted of nine companies belonging to the Brazilian agribusiness sector, with their assets traded on B3, in the period between 2009 and 2023. In the linear regressions, the shares of each company studied were used as the dependent variable and the indicators US dollar exchange rate, Selic rate, IBC-Br and IC-Br were used as explanatory variables. The CAPM model used the Selic rate as the risk-free rate and the IC-Br as the parameter representing the market return. The findings showed that only the MRFG3, SLCE3 and SMTO3 assets met the significance level. The R-squared analysis offered greater explanatory power, especially for SMTO3, and the model can be used to predict the asset's price. In the individual analysis of AGRO3, JBSS3, SLCE3 and SMTO3, all the explanatory variables met the significance level. Regarding the explanatory variables, the dollar rate, despite having a low adjusted R-squared, proved to be significant when its coefficient was analyzed, since the values presented demonstrate that variations in the indicator will have an impact on the asset's price. Regarding the Selic rate variable, it proved to have low explanatory power, and when its coefficients and sign were analyzed, it implies that variations in the indicator will have a significant impact on the price of the asset and possible investment decisions. Regarding the IBC-Br variable, it offered low explanatory power, except for the SMTO3 asset, and when the coefficients are analyzed, it is inferred that variations in the indicator will have little impact on asset prices. Regarding the IC-Br variable, it had low explanatory power except for the assets AGRO3, SLCE3 and SMTO3, and when its coefficients are analyzed, it is inferred that variations in the indicator will have little impact on asset prices. Regarding the CAPM, only the MDIA3 asset showed a return higher than that obtained by the market.